It's Not That You Lost, It's How You Did It
Posted By: Aaron Sims
As of today, Milwaukee’s magic number to make the playoffs is 30. That is the number of points Milwaukee gains along with the number of points lost by Abbotsford. The most points Abbotsford can get is 95. The most for Milwaukee is 96.
Now, the most possible points Milwaukee can get, if it wins its last 14 games, is 94. Clearly, something has to give.
Heading into last weekend, I was thinking a 12-4 record would do the trick. The Admirals won one game and lost another. So now, 11-3 may do the trick. I stress the word “may”. That 22 points would get the team to 88.
The Admirals need to win games in regulation. If they lose, they must lose in overtime or in a shootout. Points are at a premium.
It’s been a roller coaster of a season for the Admirals. One of the things that has hurt the team is the failure to push games into overtime. Milwaukee has played the second fewest overtime games in the Western Conference with 10. Chicago has played eight.
In those 10 games, Milwaukee has earned 16 points. Twelve points came with a win, four in a loss. Only Chicago has earned fewer points (11) in overtime this season.
In overtime or shootout losses this year, Houston has earned 12 points. That is 16% of the points they have earned this season. Milwaukee is tied for second in fewest points accrued in a loss with just four. Peoria has only three.
Milwaukee has lost 27 games in regulation. The team has 31 losses if you add the overtime or shootout losses.
Houston, a team Milwaukee has defeated both times they’ve played this season, has lost 32 games out of 64. However, 12 of those losses were in OT or a shootout. Milwaukee is 10 points behind the Aeros.
Two teams currently in front of Milwaukee in the Western Conference have lost more games than won. But, those overtime and shootout losses have Rochester (31-32, nine points earned in OT or shootout losses) and Lake Erie (32-33, seven points in OT and shootout losses) in a tie for eighth with 71 points.
Houston is 32-32 in straight W’s and L’s. But with 12 points in OT and shootout losses, the Aeros are in fourth place.
Milwaukee is 31-31 in straight wins and losses. But the team has just four OT/shootout loss points.
Only seven of the 15 teams in the Western Conference are above .500 in straight wins and losses. Milwaukee and Houston are .500.
Milwaukee has the fourth most regulation losses in the Western Conference. The team is tied for fourth fewest points.
It’s easy to see that the extra push or just hanging on could have had a big impact in where the Ads are currently. Unfortunately, that position is on the outside looking in at the playoffs.
Milwaukee has 14 games remaining against eight different teams (Rockford, Charlotte, Chicago, Peoria, Houston, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Hamilton). Six of those games are at the Bradley Center, eight are on the road.
The Admirals are 20-22-1-1 against the remaining schedule. The big damage to that record is courtesy of Rockford (2-6-0-1) and Charlotte (1-3-1-0). The Admirals play each of those teams three more times.
Milwaukee has home games remaining against Rockford (2), Charlotte, Houston, Hamilton and Oklahoma City. The Admirals are 7-3-0-1 against those teams at the Bradley Center (Hamilton has yet to play here this season).
Milwaukee’s road games are at Charlotte (2), San Antonio (2), Rockford, Houston, Peoria and Chicago. Milwaukee is 6-11-0-1 against those opponents when visiting their respective arenas (Milwaukee has yet to visit San Antonio this season).
The old adage “win at home, tie on the road” could be enough to get the Admirals into the playoffs for the tenth straight season. I stress the word "could".
One more thing…I saw Van Halen with Kool & the Gang in Toronto on Saturday. If you get the chance, I have two words for you: “GO! (twice)”.